CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2022-08-16T02:24:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2022-08-16T02:24ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/21221/-1
CME Note: This CME is first visible to the south-southwest in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery. It appears to the southwest in STEREO A COR2 imagery with a very bright front. The source of this CME is an eruption from AR 13078 associated with filament material (SDO/AIA 304), brightening (SDO/AIA 304, 193), post-eruptive arcade (SDO/AIA 193), and possibly two flares (SDO/AIA 131).
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-08-19T02:42Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 584.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v3 Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021] u_r = 362.712 Acceleration: 1.63924 Duration in seconds: 260322.57 Duration in days: 3.0129927 t2 is negative ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: 1.64 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 789.4 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 19/08/2022 Time: 02:42 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 43.47 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2022-08-17T07:14Z
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